🔗 Share this article

A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion

The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the book, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. They writes two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.

Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.

"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has got important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."

Request for More Extensive Debate

Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."